08-05-24 TPE TARGET VICTORY AM

On Tuesday, Polling Expert Nate Silver unveiled his inaugural election model following VP Kamala Harris's ascension to the top Democrat spot. Initially, he projected Harris would capture the popular vote but trailed Trump in the crucial Electoral College arena, labeling her "a modest underdog".

This setup raised concerns among Dems regarding another potential repeat of the devastating popular-vote-to-electoral-college splits witnessed during the 2000 and 2016 contests - both losses for the party. As per Silver, Harris stands stronger today versus then-incumbent-challenger President Biden.

Silver dramatically shifted gears just before the weekend by pronouncing the contest a dead heat: "the presidential election is a toss-up". This stark contrast marks a significant departure from earlier predictions favoring Trump.

Recalling past models, Silver reflected upon launching the initial presidential framework last month when Biden held court as Dem standard-bearer:

"When we launched the presidential model on June 26 — in the lifetime ago when Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee — the headline in the post that introduced the model was that the election wasn’t a toss-up. Instead, Biden had persistently been behind in the states that were most likely to decide the Electoral College, enough so that he was about a 2:1 underdog in the election despite the uncertainties in the race. His situation wasn’t unrecoverable, or at least it wasn’t until the debate.”

However, given the current circumstances surrounding 'Kamala-mode', Silver opined that there is no clear winner. Harris is much more capable of beating Trump than Biden, but “I wouldn’t blame you if you wanted to bet either on Harris or on Trump.”

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